Movie Business = Music Business minus 5 years?

Interesting post from the ever-excellent Silicon Alley Insider: Sorry, There's No Way To Save The TV Business...

As with print-based media, Internet-based distribution generates only a tiny fraction of the revenue and profit that today's incumbent cable, broadcast, and satellite distribution models do.  As Internet-based distribution gains steam, therefore, most TV industry incumbents will no longer be able to support their existing cost structures.

Here's the gist: we're all going to be out of work in five years.  Well, that's a bit of an exaggeration, but the truth is that I don't see much of a future for the industry.  THAT IS NOT TO SAY THAT I DON'T LOVE THE BUSINESS AND WANT TO DO THIS FOREVER, but the fact of the matter is, especially with post-production, job levels are taking a nose-dive and revenue streams are not far behind it.  I mean, we already have internet-equipped televisions, internet video on the rise, and more people then ever on the internet, so the technology is there.  How long before the industry has the rug pulled out from under us, just like the newspaper and record industry?

And things are already dead in this town.  What from the Writer's Strike, the SAG "strike", and the down economy, I can't image jobs ever getting back to the levels they were at when I first moved out here.  I don't want to say that we'll never find a way to work, but if you've got any ideas, I suggest you pick up the phone and call some industry executives, because they want to know.

Quick link to a recent episode of KCRW's The Business: Below The Line and Under The Gun.  It's probably the best description of the job market facing us below-the-line'rs in this town.  Only problem is that it doesn't even address the job market for post-production, because with the addition of technology to all these problems, editorial staffs have gone from double-digit crews to maybe two or three people for multi-million dollar projects! You want to talk about too much supply vs. demand, here is your example #1!

I'd love to hear what anyone has to say about this.  Hell, talk me down if you think I'm crazy.  I would love for someone to make me feel better about this.  Please comment!